2011年08月01日 05时16分，《英语资源网:考研英语阅读理解部分试题解析[1]》由出国留学网liuxue86.com英语编辑整理.

Could the bad old days of economic decline beabout to return? Since OPEC agreed tosupply-cuts in March, the price of crude oil has jumped to almost $26 a barrel,up from less than $10 last December. This near-tripling of oil prices calls upscary memories of the 1973 oil shock, when prices quadrupled, and 1979-80, whenthey also almost tripled. Both previous shocks resulted in double-digitinflation and global economic decline. So where are theheadlines warning of gloom and doom this time?
The oil price was given another push up this week when Iraqsuspended oil exports. Strengthening economic growth, at the same time aswinter grips the northern hemisphere, could push the price higher still in theshort term.
Yet there are good reasons to expect the economic consequences nowto be less severe than in the 1970s. In most countries the cost of crude oilnow accounts for a smaller share of the price of petrol than it did in the1970s. In Europe, taxes account for up to four-fifths of the retail price, so evenquite big changes in the price of crude have a more muted effect on pump pricesthan in the past.
Rich economies are also less dependent on oil than they were, and soless sensitive to swings in the oil price. Energy conservation, a shift toother fuels and a decline in the importance of heavy, energy-intensiveindustries have reduced oil consumption. Software,consultancy and mobile telephones use far less oil than steel or carproduction. For each dollar of GDP (in constant prices) rich economies now usenearly 50% less oil than in 1973. The OECD estimates in its latest EconomicOutlook that, it oil prices averaged $22 a barrel for a full year, comparedwith $13 in 1998, this would increase the oil import bill in rich economies byonly 0.25-0.5% of GDP. That is less than one-quarter of the income loss in 1974or 1980. On the other hand, oil-importing emerging economies—to which heavy industry has shifted—have become more energy-intensive,and so could be more seriously squeezed.
One more reason not to lose sleep over the rise in oil prices isthat, unlike the rises in the 1970s, it has not occurred against the backgroundof general commodity-price inflation and global excess demand. A sizableportion of the world is only just emerging from economic decline. TheEconomist's commodity price index is broadly unchanging from a year ago. In1973 commodity prices jumped by 70%, and in 1979 byalmost 30%.
51. The main reason for the latest rise of oil price is
［A］ global inflation. ［B］ reduction in supply.
［C］ fast growth in economy. ［D］ Iraq's suspension of exports.
52. It can be inferred from the text that the retail price of petrolwill go up dramatically if
［A］ price of crude rises. ［B］ commodity prices rise.
［C］ consumption rises. ［D］ oil taxes rise.
53. The estimates in Economic Outlook show that in rich countries.
［A］ heavy industry becomes more energy-i

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